UK food and drink inflation rose to 3.7% in the 12 months to March 2026, up from 3.3% in February, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The data reveals that rising costs for meat, fish, and confectionery were the primary drivers behind the increase, even as core inflation measures showed signs of cooling elsewhere in the economy.

The headline Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose to 3.3% in March, driven largely by significant upward pressure from motor fuels. Producer input prices also surged by 5.4% annually, fueled by a 58.8% monthly spike in crude oil prices—the largest contribution to producer inflation this year.

James Walton, Chief Economist at IGD, comments: “Food and drink inflation increased to 3.7% in March, with meat, fish, confectionery and soft drinks the most affected categories. It is likely that much of this is down to cost pressures already in the supply chain, not the immediate impact of events in the Middle East.

"However, the conflict is having an impact on forecourts, where prices at the pump have already risen. Over time, we expect cost pressures for food businesses to rise because food supply is energy intensive, with oil and gas involved at every stage in the process and this will be passed down the supply chain, eventually to food shoppers. Events are already affecting people’s outlook with latest IGD ShopperVista data showing that shopper confidence has dropped to -4, its lowest level since August 2023.

"The current ceasefire may slow further upward pressure but does not reverse costs already incurred and the effects will unfold over months ahead. It will move at different rates in the various categories, with price changes for salads and fruit and vegetables likely to pass through the system more quickly. Our forecasts remain unchanged that average food inflation is likely to exceed 4.8% for 2026 but could briefly peak at 8% if disruption to global energy markets persists, in the most severe but short‑lived energy shock scenario.”

The rise in food prices coincides with a sharp drop in shopper confidence, which hit its lowest point in eight months. Analysts warn that while current price hikes reflect existing supply chain pressures, the sustained volatility in global energy markets—particularly affecting red diesel and fertiliser production—is expected to drive food inflation higher throughout the remainder of 2026.