What Are The Chances Of Keeping Your Resolution?

New Year’s resolutions have deep roots, dating back over 4,000 millenia.

Ancient Babylonians celebrated the new year with the Akitu festival, a 12-day event involving promises to gods, debt repayment, and returning borrowed items. This ancient tradition represents the earliest form of New Year's resolutions, with individuals pledging self-improvement during a period of renewal. (Bustle)

“In 153 B.C., The Roman Senate declared that January 1st would signal the start of the new year, honouring the god Janus…Because Janus was said to have two faces, he could look forwards and backwards at the same time, symbolising the end of the previous year and the start of the new year ahead. However, it took over 100 years for this to take effect — Julius Caesar made it official around 46 B.C.E. Romans, similar to the Babylonians, would make promises to Janus about their behaviour for the next year.” (Teen Vogue)

“Entries in the diary of a 14th century Italian merchant resolved to be a better Christian and not have sex on Fridays. At the end of each year, knights in the Middle Ages made vows while placing their hands on a peacock called, fittingly, the Peacock Vow.” (Bustle)

“A Boston newspaper article from 1813 is credited with the first use of the term New Year resolution, and already, it was poking fun at the whole endeavour: “There are multitudes of people, accustomed to receive injunctions of new year resolutions, who will sin all the month of December, with a serious determination of beginning the new year with new resolutions and new behaviour, and with the full belief that they shall thus expiate and wipe away all their former faults.” (Teen Vogue)

The Myth of ‘New Year, New Me’

The allure of the "New Year, New Me" phenomenon lies in the promise of a fresh start, symbolising the opportunity for a clean slate. (BBC)

“In a phenomenon known as the January Effect, the market always performs better than average at this time of year. Recent evidence suggests part of the explanation lies in simple optimism: in January, we take a rosier view of the future, and tend to bid up uncertain stocks. (They subsequently fall back to their real value.)” (New Yorker)

However, the execution often stumbles under the weight of unrealistic expectations and a lack of sustained commitment. Common pitfalls include setting overly ambitious goals, expecting sudden transformations, and seeking external validation.

What does the research say?

In the 1980s, Psychologist John Norcross delved into New Year's resolutions, discovering that over fifty percent of Americans made resolutions, but after six months, only forty percent stuck with them. Two years later, the number further dwindled to nineteen percent. Even among those deemed successful, more than half encountered lapses, averaging fourteen. Despite these challenges, the enduring narrative persists—we continue to believe in our ability to lose weight, save money, and commit to the gym. (New Yorker)

Behavioural Economist Katherine Milkman's 2012 research highlighted the impact of "temporal turning points" such as the start of a week, month, or year, creating optimism and motivating goal-setting behaviours. However, the "false-hope syndrome" warns against unrealistic expectations, stressing the importance of setting realistic goals, having modest expectations, creating firm plans, and acknowledging the influence of a committed partner in achieving success. “Anecdotal evidence suggests that one’s commitment to a determined spouse can also be helpful. “I haven’t had a cigarette in probably six years,” President Obama said in September 2013. “That’s because I’m scared of my wife.” (New Yorker)

According to a 2023 survey by Forbes Health and OnePoll, when 1,000 adults in the U.S. were asked about their New Year's resolutions, fitness took the lead at 48%, surpassing the previous year's emphasis on mental health. The survey revealed that 62% of respondents, with a slightly higher percentage among women, felt pressured to set resolutions. Mental health remained a significant focus for 36% of those surveyed. 80% expressed confidence in their resolutions, and 49% planned to incorporate fitness apps into their routines. Common resolutions included improving finances (38%), weight loss (34%), and adopting a healthier diet (32%). “The average resolution lasts just 3.74 months. Only 8% of respondents tend to stick with their goals for one month, while 22% last two months, 22% last three months and 13% last four months.” (Forbes)

The way you frame resolutions matters, which can be categorised into "avoidance goals" (quitting habits) and "approach goals" (adopting new habits). In a 2020 study on New Year's resolutions, 1,066 participants were part of an experiment that delved into the types of resolutions people set and how well they achieved them. The most common resolutions centred around physical health, and 55% of participants reported success when checked a year later. Goals with a positive approach (at 58.9%) did better than goals aimed at avoiding things (at 47.1%), and those who received some form of support experienced significantly higher success rates. (Oscarsson M, Carlbring P, Andersson G, Rozental A.)

Crafting Realistic Resolutions: Sustainable "New Year, New Me" Goals

Psychology experts have recommended effective methods for crafting resolutions, to help you avoid unrealistic expectations and transient motivation, as curated by Tx Odds.

Little Programs & SMART Framework

Dr. Carlos Alós-Ferrer argues that traditional New Year's resolutions fail due to a conflict between deliberative and impulsive brain functions. “Deliberative goals are thwarted by the more impulsive part of your brain, which implements automatic and habitual behaviours.” (Carlos Alós-Ferrer Ph.D.)

To address this, he suggests treating goals as little programs, using specific action triggers and the if-then format for cultivating new automatic behaviours. The SMART goal framework can enhance specificity when creating resolutions. “Goals need to be specific statements, at best formulated in an if-then format: which action trigger should lead to which specific action.” (Carlos Alós-Ferrer Ph.D.)

Utilising "action triggers" or "implementation intentions" as techniques can help align impulsive behaviours with long-term goals. “The impulsive part of your brain does not speak in statements. . .it speaks in conditionals. If I see this, I will do that. Your automatic behaviours are like little computer programs which recognise a situation and run a few commands as a consequence.” (Carlos Alós-Ferrer Ph.D.)

Moreover, modifying the environment through ‘choice architecture’ can help enable achieving goals. By considering “which are the triggers that set up your unwanted behaviours? You could leave your smartphone in a different room in the evening and have a book prominently by the couch instead…Rather than being tough on yourself, make it a little easier for you to achieve your goals.” (Carlos Alós-Ferrer Ph.D.)

Nudge Words, To Don’t List, One-Month Resolutions & Mini-Goals

Author Meg Selig proposes innovative alternatives to traditional New Year's resolutions, such as using a "nudge word" or "nudge motto" as a mindset reminder, creating a "To-Don't List" for setting boundaries, adopting the concept of "One-Month Resolutions" throughout the year, embracing the "Mini-Goal" approach to break down significant goals, and integrating more healthy pleasures into your life.

The central message highlights the flexibility of setting resolutions at any time, urging individuals to discover the approach that suits them best. It emphasises various ways to initiate positive changes throughout the New Year. (Meg Selig)

Supportive Groups

Psychology Professors Dr. Jay Van Bavel and Dr. Dominic Packer advocates for "situation change" as a more effective strategy, to harness the impact of social norms and the power of groups in achieving goals.

Drawing inspiration from Odysseus' tactics with the Sirens, they recommend modifying your environment to avoid temptations. “Odysseus knew that confronting temptation without a plan would fail sooner or later. Instead, he adopted a strategy that present-day psychologists call “situation change.” This is, according to a review of 102 studies, the best strategy for exerting self-control. Rather than exposing ourselves to temptations and hoping we possess the willpower to resist, it is better to avoid confronting them in the first place.” (Dr. Jay Van Bavel and Dr. Dominic Packer)

They suggest embracing social accountability, the practice of writing down goals, and join supportive groups that align with your resolutions. Spend more time “in the presence of people whose own behaviours align with your intentions. This is how our groups can help us become the best version of ourselves.” (Dr. Jay Van Bavel and Dr. Dominic Packer)



In conclusion, embracing the "New Year, New Me" spirit provides a distinctive opportunity for reflective, realistic goal-setting and sustainable plans which can foster gradual progress and intrinsic motivation. Success involves learning from setbacks, seeing challenges as growth opportunities. Tailor your goals for what you know works for you, be it an avoidance or approach goal as it’s not universal.

As you gain more life experience, you will start to appreciate the lessons learned from failure - “I’ve had to look at failure differently, as part of the process to success. If you don’t fail, you’re not doing it right.” (George Clooney, Marc Maron Podcast)

Understanding the psychology of New Year's resolutions can help underscore common pitfalls, including quick fixes, external pressures, unrealistic goals and a lack of intrinsic motivation, specificity, planning and accountability.

Navigating through false urgency, societal pressures, and the pursuit of external validation on social media can make prioritising small and achievable goals challenging. So, it’s best to keep in mind "despite the challenges you faced in 2023 or the goals you set for 2024, you are enough, as you are, right now." (Headspace)